UDC

101.1:316

DOI

10.37482/2687-1505-V440

Authors

Marina V. Nenasheva
Cand. Sci. (Philos.), Assoc. Prof. at the Philosophy and Sociology Department, Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov (address: ul. Smol’nyy Buyan 1, Arkhangelsk, 163000, Russia).
e-mail: m.nenasheva@narfu.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2875-5638

Abstract

A characteristic feature of the modern world is the speed of the changes taking place. This increases the likelihood of random, unexpected events, which makes people’s lives less predictable and raises the issue of human adaptation to accelerated development. The article focuses on the philosophical analysis of the category of uncertainty in the context of existence of humans and the world. Ontological and epistemological ways of understanding uncertainty, which have both subjective and objective dimensions, are presented. The ontological status of uncertainty is determined by the characteristics of the object. Epistemological uncertainty is associated with the imperfection of human knowledge or the unknowability of the object of knowledge. The paper demonstrates a conceptual link between uncertainty and risk. It is argued that in a dynamically changing world, all the risks cannot be assessed, which highlights the importance of understanding the nature of uncertainty and identifying its parameters and attributes. Further, the theoretical approaches to the study of uncertainty in economics and sociology are analysed. In economics, uncertainty is viewed through the prism of probability theory (J.M. Keynes, F.H. Knight), expected utility hypothesis (J. von Neumann, O. Morgenstern) and prospect theory (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky). According to the scientists’ findings, economic processes can be assessed using probabilistic methods. However, some events cannot be predicted in a scientific way due to factors that are impossible to foresee. In addition, people’s decisions are often irrational, which makes it more difficult to predict their behaviour. In sociology, the concept of uncertainty is considered in connection with the category of risk (U. Beck, N. Luhmann, A. Giddens, M. Douglas). The researchers believe that risks are class-based and institutional in nature and are associated with making decisions aimed at preventing them. The author concludes that solving the problem of risk management can help reduce uncertainty in the modern world.

Keywords

globalization, social theory, uncertainty, probability, risk, social sciences, sociology, economics

References

1. Euripides. Medeya [Medea]. Euripides. Tragedii [Tragedies]. Moscow, 1999. Vol. 1. Available at: https://lib.ru/POEEAST/EVRIPID/evripid1_2.txt (accessed: 11 January 2025).
2. Sokolova R.I. The Uncertainty of the World and the Problem of Russian Civilization. Russ. J. Philos. Sci., 2021, vol. 64, no. 2, pp. 128–148 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.30727/0235-1188-2021-64-2-128-148
3. Avdeenko E.V., Radugin A.A. Neopredelennost’ – dominantnoe kachestvo sovremennogo obshchestva [Uncertainty as the Dominant Characteristic of Modern Society]. Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ser.: Filosofiya, 2022, no. 2, pp. 3–11.
4. Prigogine I. The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature. New York, 1997. 228 p. (Russ. ed.: Prigozhin I. Konets opredelennosti. Vremya, khaos i novye zakony prirody. Izhevsk, 2000. 208 p.).
5. Nauka. Velichayshie teorii. Vyp. 3. Sushchestvuet li mir, esli na nego nikto ne smotrit? Geyzenberg. Printsip neopredelennosti [Science. The Greatest Theories. Iss. 3. Does the World Exist When No One Is Looking? Heisenberg. The Uncertainty Principle]. Moscow, 2015. 176 p.
6. Vlasenko K.I. Rol’ geyzenbergovskoy neopredelennosti poznaniya v formirovanii mifologicheskogo mirooshchushcheniya i miroponimaniya [The Role of the Heisenberg Uncertainty of Cognition in the Formation of the Mythological Worldview and Worldview]. Sotsial’no-gumanitarnye znaniya, 2023, no. 6, pp. 53–58.
7. Wakeham J. Uncertainty: History of the Concept. Wright J.D. (ed.). International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. Elsevier, 2015, pp. 716–721. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.03175-5
8. Lektorskiy V.A. Neopredelennost’, nepredskazuemost’ i superopredelennost’ [Uncertainty, Unpredictability and Supercertainty]. Zapesotskiy A.S. (ed.). Kontury budushchego v kontekste mirovogo kul’turnogo razvitiya [Contours of the Future in the Context of World Cultural Development]. St. Petersburg, 2018, pp. 114–116.
9. Gerasimova I.A. Neopredelennost’ v poznanii i sotsial’nykh praktikakh. Epistemol. Philos. Sci., 2020, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 8–20 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.5840/eps201956462
10. Vasil’kova V.V. “Tekuchaya sovremennost’”: bazovye parametry neopredelennosti [“Liquid Modernity”: Basic Parameters of Uncertainty]. Mir cheloveka: neopredelennost’ kak vyzov [The Human World: Uncertainty as a Challenge]. Moscow, 2019, pp. 146–158.
11. Borshchov A.S. Rol’ neopredelennosti v razvitii [Role of Uncertainty in the Development]. Izvestiya Saratovskogo universiteta. Novaya seriya. Ser.: Filosofiya. Psikhologiya. Pedagogika, 2015, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 9–13 (in Russ.).
12. Kolesnikov E.Yu. A Topic of Uncertainty in the Publications of the Journal “Issues of Risk Analysis”. Iss. Risk Anal., 2019, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 78–93 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-78-93
13. Leksin V.N. Neopredelennost’, riski i ustoychivost’ sistem [Uncertainty, Risks and Sustainability of Systems]. Trudy Instituta sistemnogo analiza Rossiyskoy akademii nauk, 2022, vol. 72, no. 1, pp. 3–14.
14. Luhmann N. Ponyatie riska [The Concept of Risk]. Thesis, 1994, no. 5, pp. 135–160.
15. Giddens A. Sud’ba, risk i bezopasnost’ [Fate, Risk and Security]. Thesis, 1994, no. 5, pp. 107–134.
16. Knight F.H. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Boston, 1921. 381 p. (Russ. ed.: Nayt F.Kh. Risk, neopredelennost’ i pribyl’. Moscow, 2003. 360 p.).
17. Solodovnikov S.Yu. Sovremennaya ekonomika – ekonomika riskov [Current Economy – Risk Economy]. Drukerovskiy vestnik, 2019, no. 5, pp. 3–56. https://doi.org/10.17213/2312-6469-2019-5-43-56
18. Abdeeva A.T., Ozdamirova L.M., Arsalieva E.Kh. Tsifrovaya ekonomika. Riski i problemy tsifrovoy ekonomiki [Digital Economy: Risks and Problems]. Ekonomika: vchera, segodnya, zavtra, 2023, vol. 13, no. 7A, pp. 148–153.
19. Taranov P.V. Mirovaya ekonomika v svete sovremennykh global’nykh problem i riskov [The World Economy in the Light of Modern Global Problems and Risks]. Gumanitarnye, sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie i obshchestvennye nauki, 2023, no. 7, pp. 244–247.
20. Keynes J.M. A Treatise on Probability. London, 1921. Available at: https://www.gutenberg.org/files/32625/32625-pdf.pdf (accessed: 12 December 2024).
21. von Neuman J., Morgenstern O. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, 1953. 641 p. (Russ. ed.: fon Neyman Dzh., Morgenshtern O. Teoriya igr i ekonomicheskoe povedenie. Moscow, 1970. 707 p.).
22. Kahneman D., Tversky A. Teoriya perspektiv: analiz prinyatiya resheniy v usloviyakh riska [Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody, 2015, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 3–25.
23. Luhmann N. Risk i opasnost’ [Risk and Danger]. Gumanitarnyy portal. Available at: https://gtmarket.ru/library/articles/6107 (accessed: 22 December 2024).
24. Beck U. Risikogesellschaft: Auf dem Weg in eine andere Moderne. Frankfurt am Main, 1986. 391 p. (Russ. ed.: Bek U. Obshchestvo riska: Na puti k drugomu modernu. Moscow, 2000. 383 p.).
25. Douglas M., Wildavsky A. Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technological and Environmental Dangers. Berkeley, 1982. 223 p.